China warns of ‘colossal’ COVID sudden increase if it opens up like US, Franc…

Beijing: China could confront more than 630,000 COVID-19 infections a day if it dropped its zero-tolerance policies by lifting travel curbs, according to a study by Peking University mathematicians.

In the report published in China CDC Weekly by the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, the mathematicians said China could not provide to lift travel restrictions without more efficient vaccinations or specific treatments.

People wearing confront masks to protect from COVID-19 take an escalator at a commercial office building in Beijing, on Sunday, November 28.Credit:AP

Using data for August from the United States, Britain, Spain, France and Israel, the mathematicians assessed the possible results if China adopted the same pandemic control tactics as those countries.

China’s daily new situations would reach at the minimum 637,155 if it adopted the United States’ pandemic strategy, the report said.

And daily situations would hit 275,793 if China took the same approach as Britain and 454,198 if it imitated France, it said.

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“The estimates revealed the real possibility of a colossal sudden increase which would almost certainly generate an unaffordable burden on the medical system,” the report said.

“Our findings have raised a clear warning that, for the time being, we are not ready to embrace ‘open-up’ strategies resting solely on the hypothesis of herd immunity induced by vaccination advocated by certain western countries.”

The mathematicians warned that their estimates were based on basic arithmetic calculations and that more complex models were needed to study the evolution of the pandemic if travel restrictions were lifted.

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